The West Virginia turkey flock could be staging for another run of good news. At least we hope so. Speaking of runs, there was nothing like that meteoric restoration-era ride of 17 straight state record spring gobbler kills between 1979 and 1995, topping out at the then record kill of 16,770.

For this year however, hunters may have to settle for an average if not record gobbler kill.

West Virginia DNR’s in-state trap and transplant program finally ended in January 1989 and the 1995 record reflects a “saturated” statewide population for all 55 of its counties.

Nature has a way of keeping some sort of balance and the flock came back down to earth mostly declining between 1996 and 2000.

The year 2001 brought back some pleasant memories of those modern-era good old days via the current reigning record kill of 17,875 gobblers. After 2001, it encountered another downslide sequel as aggravated by a bad winter, multiple mast failures and some cold-wet brood rearing years.

These types of turkey problems are decidedly and uncontrollably weather related.

We can’t do much about them.

The years 2005 and 2006 have brought back a bit of weather normalcy and a few more turkeys.

Though last year’s spring gobbler kill just shy of 12,000 is a stretch off the record 2001 mark of 17,875; it was still a decent come back year.

It was a modest increase over the prior (2005) year’s 11,000 bird tally.

Unfortunately for 2007, another upward notch back up toward that elusive record level may not be in the cards.

It would pay to take a hard look back at the reigning record kill year of 2001 to gain insight into this spring of 2007’s forecast.

Why, it was preceded by a likewise reigning record brood count year of 1999, two years before.

Now remember that two-year lag time between brood counts and harvest levels.

DNR’s erstwhile turkey guru and present Chief of Wildlife Resources, Curtis Taylor indicates that, “Our biologists have found that the level of brood production accurately forecasts spring turkey harvests two years later.”

Reason being, the bulk of gobblers bagged are those lovelorn two-year olds.

The Jakes or young of the year birds are dominated by the older birds when it comes to breeding rights and the three years and older gobblers are experts at eluding hunters.

It was Taylor that as I recall nicknamed the two-year olds “Kamikaze’s” for sacrificing themselves to hunters, comprising the bulk of the annual kill.

Taylor by the way has been awarded the National Wild Turkey Federation’s (NWTF) highest honor, the Mosby Award for his lifelong professional efforts in the turkey arena.

He has already hinted that the 2007 kill may be down a notch from last year’s 11,879.

Why?

Again recalling that two-year lag effect, the brood report summary for 2005 was roughly 20 percent lower than that of 2004.

That being the case, a gobbler kill in the vicinity of 10,000 birds could even be pushing it for this spring. Regretfully, there are other negative factors linked to this modest forecast.

The DNR Bowhunter Survey confirms a declining number of turkey observations.

Furthermore, the fall 2006 harvest was one of the lowest in nearly 40 years of record keeping! Sorry for the lack of good news but hunters must also put things in perspective.

The first ever spring gobbler season of 1966 yielded only 12 birds and averaged only a few hundred per annum the decade after.

Most professionals concede that a run of consecutive or nearly consecutive good brood years would be the ticket for our turkeys. We hope that this spring can get that ball rolling!

In addition to WVDNR’s ongoing radio telemetry survival study of gobblers, three nearby states are studying banded gobblers all with the financial help of NWTF to keep the best management strategies going.

Weather of course can dramatically affect the harvest too.

In particular, rain can douse the kill by dampening both the gobblers’ intensity and hunter participation. Another plus of a somewhat reduced flock is that the spring woods is a lot less crowded with hunters as many folks opt out.

Even though a record year may not be in the cards, there should be plenty enough gobblin’ goin’ on to make things interesting for the many that still get out there after the old monarchs of the spring woods.

Good hunting.